The January transfer window will be open and letting in the cold air before we know it. But is Liverpool likely to complete any business?
History shows how difficult it is to predict this with any accuracy. Each of the last two winter windows has seen a major attacking talent acquired, in the shape of Cody Gakpo and Luis Díaz respectively. But the Colombian arrived four years after the last major January signing (sorry, Takumi) so the Reds may keep their powder dry and restrain from making any purchases this time around.
Whatever the club’s strategy proves to be, there will be no shortage of players being linked with moves to Anfield. Liverpool looks most in need of new blood in defensive midfield and central defense, with a reported target for the former position now looking like he might be available.
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Any utterance from social media transfer guru Fabrizio Romano tends to generate a frenzy of rumors. Reporting in his Daily Briefing, Romano stated that: "From speaking to sources, it’s very likely for Kalvin Phillips to leave Manchester City in the January transfer window."
As the England international has been linked with Liverpool in the past and plays in a position they have yet to resolve with their midfield rebuild, it’s natural to think the Reds may be interested in striking a deal. Indeed, Sky Germany has done just that. But even if we disregard the low likelihood of City selling a player to a direct title rival, would Liverpool even be interested anymore?
After all, the 27-year-old has barely seen the light of day for the Cityzens since signing for them in the summer of 2022. Per FBRef, Phillips has played just 11.5 per cent of the possible minutes for City during his time there and he didn’t even start in the league when Rodri, the player he essentially covers, was recently unavailable due to suspension.
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His almost complete lack of playing time means Phillips’ FBRef page is devoid of a scouting report or list of similar players. There is too little for the algorithms to go on. As such, you wouldn’t blame Liverpool for not investing in someone who would become their oldest midfielder with a contract lasting past this season, aside from Wataru Endō.
However, it’s interesting to look at the last available report for Phillips, from his final Premier League season with Leeds. It shows a player who was the top midfielder in the division for ball recoveries, as well as being in the top eight per cent in his position for blocks, dribblers tackled and combined tackles and interceptions.
There was a man who amassed a lot of defensive actions. As he would theoretically replace Alexis Mac Allister at the base of the Liverpool midfield, let’s compare the Phillips of 2021/22 with the Argentine this season.
While the Reds’ midfielder has better scores for passing and dribbling metrics, as you’d have expected to see, his defensive numbers are almost identical to Phillips’. Such simple radar comparisons can be heavily flawed, but this example is about as fair as you can get.
Firstly, both players were or will be 25 years old in the campaigns in question, so at broadly similar stages of their careers. Even more importantly, the teams have had similar possession averages; they were just 0.3 per cent apart prior to the Merseyside derby, though Liverpool’s dominance of that fixture has since pushed them up. This really matters when comparing defensive numbers as it affects how much time a player’s team is without the ball and their opportunities to regain it.
With the numbers displayed here, the fact City would not sell a player to the Reds does not matter. They already have a man who can deliver the same level of performance as that which earned Phillips his move to the Etihad, and they paid less for the privilege too. Advantage, Liverpool.