While Liverpool fans are getting antsy about only completing one transfer so far, the rest of the big six remain almost at a standstill. Manchester City has announced Mateo Kovačić, while Chelsea had already agreed a deal for Christopher Nkunku well in advance, but there’s precious little else to write home about as various sagas play out.
Chief among them is the Declan Rice situation, with West Ham doing its utmost to drive the price up as high as possible for its prized asset. It seems Arsenal has managed to outlast Manchester City, with its latest bid prompting Pep Guardiola’s side to withdraw from contention (The Athletic), but there is now a huge amount of money on the table.
Still not even technically accepted by West Ham yet, the latest formal Arsenal bid guarantees a remarkable $126m (£100m/€116m), with a small amount of add-ons taking the total value of the offer up to $133m (£105m/€121m). This will strike Liverpool in particular as a highly significant figure.
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For one thing, it’s well above the Liverpool transfer record, with FSG never sanctioning anything even approaching this territory. No doubt the owners will be surprised to see Arsenal spending so lavishly, having been out of the Champions League for so long.
But the final value of the Arsenal offer is especially striking because it is exactly three times what Liverpool has already paid to bring Alexis Mac Allister to the club. That difference speaks volumes.
Let’s be clear: the FSG model is far from perfect. Insisting that a club is completely self-sustaining places a cap on ambitions, a limit which becomes harder to defy with each new state-backed acquisition. Given the more than tenfold increase in value that the owners have overseen at Liverpool, it’s not unreasonable to suggest that it should be prepared to put some money in, with an eventual massive profit still very safe.
But there’s a happy medium between that and sanctioning exorbitant spends on ill-thought-out transfer moves. That’s not to say that Arsenal is necessarily making a mistake in pursuing Rice, but there have to be question marks over whether this is truly the wisest use of such massive funds.
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After all, Liverpool was confronted with very similar arithmetic when deciding whether or not to continue its pursuit of Jude Bellingham. It reached the decision to move on, effectively concluding that it could get three very good midfielders for the same price. In the case of Rice, given the value of the latest Arsenal bid, that looks to be literally true.
Even the most ardent Gooner (or West Ham supporter) would not try and contend that Rice is three times the player Mac Allister is. He has more of a sample size at the top level, and he is homegrown — Arsenal will be paying for those luxuries. But even then, this is still a player with just a year left on his contract, who can negotiate over a free transfer in around six months. In this context, the fees being touted are truly staggering.
The question that has to be asked is whether Rice is a truly transformative acquisition. If he is, the concept of ‘value’ almost goes out of the window in some ways. Realistically, nobody signed for anywhere in this region is ever going to eventually bank the club a profit — the major premium is accepted because of what it will mean on the pitch. Clearly, Arsenal thinks it has found that player.
Provided the move goes through, time will tell how right that judgement is. But for Liverpool, the numbers now getting thrown around in the Rice saga only reaffirm the Mac Allister masterstroke. FSG will still be satisfied with its plan, confident that it can strengthen at least as much as Arsenal in this transfer window without having to accept overpaying.